Bravos are so close
It’s right there in this blog’s tagline – we are no fans of blind devotion to statistics, especially obscure creations like PECOTA. Why trust something with the same name as a mediocre utility man?
I must confess, though, that I’m a sucker for the occasional numerical nugget that makes some sense.
Here’s one. We all know the home team has a dismal record in one-run games -- 10-14. The Bravos have played more one-run games than any team in baseball, according to the local organ.
The nugget: In one-run tilts against sub-.500 opponents, we’re 4-2; versus winning teams the record is 6-12, a .333 percentage. If the bullpen doesn’t improve, those demoralizing defeats like last night’s, like the extra-inning one at Shea, like the 10-9 defeat in the desert, etc. etc. will continue.
The evidence is mounting that small events – base running, outfielders throwing to second to keep double plays in order and especially critical pitches by relievers – will likely accumulate to determine the ’06 Bravos’ fate. So far, 18 of 35 games against winning teams have been decided by a single run. Obviously the bullpens don’t decide every close game, but they often do. Fix that screaming problem and this team probably reverses half the one-run losses and makes the playoffs. The status quo likely means an October off.